That's what Fannie Mae economists wrote in theirissued this week, which doubled down on their earlier prediction that the economy is headed toward a "mild recession" next year.
As for home sales, the economists are forecasting the U.S total to rest at 4.8 million in 2023, "which would be the slowest annual pace since 2011." In 2024, those sales will pick up only slightly, they predict, to 4.9 million. They also downgraded their expectations for 2023 mortgage originations from $1.6 trillion to $1.56 trillion and from $1.92 trillion to $1.88 trillion in 2024.
Meanwhile, they expect the data to show credit card transactions and retail sales pulled back in August. "Housing production has indeed held up. However, the pandemic-related fiscal transfers and built-up household savings have supported consumer spending longer than we had expected, providing unforeseen support to the macroeconomy," Duncan continued.