With the main opposition Labour Party needing an historic vote swing to oust Rishi Sunak from Downing Street at the general election expected next year, the centrist Lib Dems see a window of opportunity akin to 2010 when their support was needed to form a stable government with the Tories. Whether a formal coalition or an informal pact, it’s a scenario where they could demand concessions — such as ministerial positions or specific policies — in exchange for their support.
Labour maintains a double-digit lead over the Conservatives in most opinion polls, but even a victory on that scale in the popular vote may not be enough for a majority in the House of Commons. That could make the Lib Dems key to the creation of the first Labour government in more than 13 years. “The more Liberal Democrat members we have in the next Parliament, the more effective we can be,” he said.
Talking down potential post-election cooperation is unsurprising because both Labour and the Liberal Democrats fear the common Tory warning of the threat of a “coalition of chaos,” an attack line that helped then-Conservative leader David Cameron defeat Labour in the 2015 general election. But what matters is how the political parties behave when power is on the line — and as Cameron showed in 2010, that often encourages deal-making.
Just as important will be the pre-election strategy for Labour and the Lib Dems and whether they can avoid significantly splitting the progressive vote, a past downfall that has historically helped the Tories. The issue is apparent in the upcoming by-election in Mid Bedfordshire, where Labour and the Lib Dems are campaigning aggressively against one another in a three-way race with the Conservatives.
That said, the Liberal Democrats are planning to marshal their resources strategically at the next national vote and won’t campaign heavily in seats where they don’t have a chance of beating Labour, according to the senior party figure.