ur preferred scenario is for [a] rally to around $4490+/-10, which it achieved today, and then drop to ultimately and ideally ~$4270+/-10 in five waves. … A drop below the grey W-i low , will then trigger the grey W-iii, iv, and v sequence to ideally $4330+/-15, $4400+/-10, and $4270+/-10, respectively. The latter target zone is also where green W-c equals the length of green W-a, measured from the green W-b high. A typical c=a relationship. Moreover, it is also where the 76.
Today, the index bottomed, so far, at $4302, which is only 13p below the ideal grey W-iii target zone set forth two weeks ago based on standard Fibonacci-based extension patterns. Thus, the market’s waves decided to extend. That can always happen but cannot be foreseen. Due to this extension, the index should now be in orange W-4 to around $4370+/10, followed by an orange W-5 down to ideally $4280+/-10, etc. See Figure 1 above. Alternatively, the index already completed the grey W-iii at today’s low and is now in grey W-iv, followed by only one last 5Figure 2. Hourly SPX chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.Please note the positive divergence on the hourly RSI5 and MACD .
Thus, based on the EWP, our primary expectations for lower prices came to fruition, and we are now tracking the completion of this impulse lower that started on September 4. The index must move above at least $4401 to suggest the low is already in place. That would be unorthodox but not impossible. For now, we prefer to look for a local high at around $4370+/-10 followed by at least one lower low at about $4270-4230 before the decline from the September 4 high can be considered complete.
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