An emergency warning is in place for Seacombe, Loch Sport, Briagolong, Stockdale, Iguana Creek and Glenaladale in Victoria. Keep up to date withAustralia's first budget surplus in 15 years could prove fleeting, with the value of the nation's commodity exports forecast to plummet by more than $100 billion.
An economist has warned it is likely to provide a headache for federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who banked a $22 billion surplus for the past financial year thanks largely to record export earnings."And it's because our major trading partner — China — is having its own economic concerns and an economic slowdown," he said.
Resources Minister Madeleine King said the value of Australia's resources exports was coming back down to earth, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and years of supply chain disruptions sent prices for many commodities into orbit. He said high commodity prices had underpinned Australia's surprisingly large budget surplus for 2022-23 by inflating taxes from company profits and payroll tax receipts.However, Mr Koukoulas said a $100 billion fall in export earnings would typically translate into a revenue hit to the federal government of $10 billion to $15 billion, wiping out much of the surplus booked for the most recent financial year.
"And if that's no longer there and if in fact it reserves, then of course, the budget will be more difficult to frame. Markets, however, are pricing in a much greater chance of a rate hike at the November meeting on Melbourne Cup day.Mr Koukoulas said that while inflation edged up again in August, much of the increase was driving by a spike in fuel prices and the RBA was likely to put greater store in the rising unemployment rate.