How Far Can Bonds Keep Falling in the Face of Persistent Labor Market Strength?

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Market Overview Analysis by Shane Neagle covering: USD/JPY, S&P 500, US Dollar Index Futures, United States 10-Year. Read Shane Neagle's latest article on Investing.com

Stocks and bonds fell sharply on Tuesday following the release of jobs data that strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.dropped 1.4% while Nasdaq lost 1.9% as investors continued to rebalance their portfolios to account for higher bond yields.

The increase in job openings reported in the August JOLTS data was primarily driven by small businesses with fewer than 10 employees. These smaller enterprises accounted for the majority of the rise in job openings. Medium-sized businesses also reported substantial increases in job openings, while the rise for large corporations was relatively modest.

Moreover, this report marked the second piece of strong economic data in as many days, following Monday's manufacturing ISM data. Taken together, the last batch of economic data has raised concerns among investors that the Fed may be forced to deliver more rate hikes in the coming months. The JOLTS data also aligns with signals from the latest U.S. GDP data, which emphasized the impact of government spending on economic growth. This further supports the argument for higher interest rates over an extended period, leading to increased yields and more weakness for the stock market.Stocks have been surging in recent months amid widespread AI optimism, as well as the belief that the Fed will ultimately be able to engineer a soft landing.

 

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