Blowout US job growth pokes hole in Fed's cooldown narrative

WASHINGTON, Oct 6 - U.S. employers in September turned their back on Federal Reserve officials who have been expecting job growth to cool, adding 336,000 positions in a return to the fevered hiring seen during the coronavirus pandemic and potentially bolstering the case for another interest rate increase.

It left the Fed to feed on a stew of conflicting signals, with job growth speeding forward, wages remaining contained on a month-to-month basis, hiring surging in industries that have been expected to cool, but growth in the labor force providing more bodies to fill the jobs – a reason the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%.

FUNDAMENTAL REEVALUATION Fast recent rises in long-term borrowing rates, however, may pose a fresh risk, with the shifting relationship between short- and long-term yields often a precursor to recession as financing costs rise more than expected for businesses and households, and spending and investment are depressed.

"It is far from clear to us that the Fed actually needs to pile on further with an additional rate increase, given the severity" of the rises in bond yields, which feed through to the rates consumers and businesses pay on mortgages and other forms of credit, said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore.

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Treasury yields wrecking-ball surge gets fresh fuel after blowout jobs reportThe U.S. Treasury yield surge that has shaken markets in recent weeks may have further room to run, after a stunningly strong U.S. jobs report bolstered the case for more tightening from the Federal Reserve. Jobs growth for September were nearly double expectations with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 336,000 for the month, strengthening views that policymakers will need to keep interest rates elevated to cool inflation. That’s bad news for investors who were looking for a respite from a rise in Treasury yields that has wreaked havoc throughout markets over the past month, bruising stocks, supercharging the dollar and pushing mortgage rates to their highest levels in more than two decades.
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