Yesterday’s blowout rise for US economic growth in the third quarter delivered an upside surprise, especially for analysts who remain all in with forecasting recession. But perhaps the warnings will finally find traction via the current run of softer Q4 nowcasts.GDP
Yet some are simply doubling down and forecasting that recession risk is still high, albeit delayed again. Eventually, the pessimism will be right, much as a broken watch offers the correct time twice a day. Yet by some accounts, the possibility that the economy may finally crack suggests that trouble is lurking once again.“It would be very surprising if consumption growth remains this strong in the fourth quarter,”“While the prospects for a soft-landing for the US economy have improved, our base case forecast still calls for two-quarters of contraction in early 2024.”