With a Europe-wide election looming, however, there's growing pressure on finance ministers to get a deal done in the coming months.On top of global concerns that higher interest rates will last longer than expected, Rome's budgetary plans for 2024 did not appease the markets.Italy could face yet more economic pressure as the European Union faces a standoff over new debt rules.
"Time is running out and the risk of a 'no deal' is rising against an unfavourable growth and monetary policy backdrop, potentially weighing on the euro and reigniting fragmentation fears in the EGB market," Davide Oneglia, director of European and global macro at TS Lombard, said in a note last week.
In 2020, the fiscal rulebook was frozen so member states could deviate from their fiscal targets and spend on pandemic-related matters, such as protecting jobs. And with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the fiscal rules were kept on hold because governments were faced with new energy costs and inflationary pressures. The suspension of those rules ends in December.
"So in principle, a non-agreement would give Italy less rope to harm itself with," he said, referencing the fact that stricter rules might force Italy to follow a tougher fiscal position and therefore see less bond market volatility.