UOB has downgraded its retail sales growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.5%, citing three downside risks. In a report, experts from UOB said the weakening external environment, greater-than-anticipated easing in domestic and regional labour market conditions, and a slower-than-expected recovery of inbound Chinese tourists may affect retail sales for the rest of the year.
"In the latest 3Q23 advance labour market release, there were further signs of softening in the labour market although it remains tight on historical comparisons, " Alvin Liew, senior economist of UOB, said. In 3Q23, overall (2.0%) and resident (2.8%) unemployment rates remained unchanged, whilst the citizen unemployment rate saw an uptick to 3.0%. Liew added that business expectations also worsened in September as the proportion of firms with intention to hire fell to 42.8%, below the 52.2% level seen during the pandemi