America’s employers delivered another healthy month of hiring in February, adding a surprising 275,000 jobs and again showcasing the U.S. economy’s resilience in the face of high interest rates.
Friday's report drastically revised down the government's estimate of hiring in December and January from what had been blockbuster increases to still-solid gains. The report also gave the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve what could be a dose of encouraging news: Average hourly wages rose just 0.1% from January, the smallest monthly gain in more than two years, and 4.3% from a year earlier, less than expected.
The unemployment rate rose last month in part because more people began looking for a job and didn’t immediately find one. The Fed will be reassured by the influx of job seekers, which typically makes it easier for businesses to fill jobs without having to significantly raise pay. When the Fed began aggressively raising rates in March 2022 to fight the worst bout of inflation in four decades, a painful recession was widely predicted, with waves of layoffs and high unemployment. The Fed boosted its benchmark rate to the highest level in more than two decades.
Faucher said he expects average monthly job growth to decelerate to around 150,000 and for the unemployment rate to rise to slightly above 4% by year's end. A cooling labor market, he suggested, will allow the Fed to start cutting rates this spring.
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