The S&P 500 has notched an average gain of 15.5 per cent in years that a president has sought re-election, CFRA data going back to the end of World War II showed. That compares to an overall average annual return of 12.8 per cent in that period. — Reuters picNEW YORK, March 9 — Investors fixated on earnings and monetary policy are starting to factor in another variable that could sway markets this year: the 2024 US presidential election.
That has not stopped some strategists from assessing how the political outlook could coalesce with other factors that have been driving markets. These include excitement over the business potential of artificial intelligence and shifting expectations of how soon the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy. The S&P 500 index is up about 7.4 per cent year-to-date and stands near a record high.“You get a sense ...
However, “it’s going to be difficult for any tax policy proposal to pass by either side because it’s going to come down to party lines,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. At the same time, election years come with their share of volatility. Analysts at BofA Global Research noted earlier this month that, in previous election years, the Cboe Volatility Index .VIX has risen by an average of 25 per cent from the second quarter to November.
Historical trends may favour Biden as well. Since the emergence of Super Tuesday in 1976, year-to-date gains in the S&P 500 ahead of the primary have coincided with the president’s political party winning the election 80 per cent of the time, LPL Financial data showed.
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