The biggest economic story of the post-pandemic period has been inflation. It's a narrative that, at first, had two clear phases. First came the breakneck acceleration in price growth amid reopenings and job changes, when the 12-month inflation rate surged from less than 1% in June 2020 to more than 9% in June 2022. Then the fever appeared to break, with price growth slowing over the next 12 months to just 3.1% in June 2023. Yet it is now clear that a third chapter has emerged: a stall.
“We do not expect inflation data over the coming months will be an overwhelming contrast to strong January data,” the Citi analysts wrote. Antonelli said the market and the economy remain healthy — so much so that instead of the 'soft landing' hoped for by the Fed, in which inflation continues to fall without a significant increase in unemployment, consumers are now looking at a 'no landing' scenario. That is not necessarily a bad thing.