Tesla analyst cuts Model 3 forecast, now sees bear market in stock ahead

Lackluster demand and overseas Model 3 delivery problems will weigh on Tesla's first-quarter earnings results when the company reports in April, RBC Capital Markets warned clients Monday.

"We see both 2019 and 2020 revenue as down vs. the 4Q18 run-rate and, given Tesla is priced for growth, believe the valuation will come in," analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a note to clients."Overall, for 2019 we now forecast about 261,000 Model 3 [deliveries], down from 268,000 prior. Our 2020 forecast of 347,500 remains unchanged."

"Regionally, we assume 21,000 units in Europe, 6,000 to 7,000 in China and the remainder in North America," Spak wrote."In China, some deliveries were delayed because of a customs issue." "Our 2019 Model 3 average selling price is now $53,600, down from $55,500 prior – still stronger in the first half as Tesla fulfills higher-end demand internationally before lower priced models kick in," Spak said.

Analyst cut Model 3 forecast once before and has no evidence to support this new decision to cut. Evidence suggests Model 3 sales in Feb were huge in Europe and China. Analysts missed Tesla deliveries forecast by wide margin in 2018 and are still working with flawed fcast model.

Model 3 has an ugly nose.

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