OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts, Leading to Reduced Global Oil Production Forecast

We now forecast significantly less global oil production than world oil consumption through the first half of 2024, requiring draws on world petroleum stocks (inventory). Stock draws tend to increase oil prices. We reduced our forecast for world oil production in the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) to 101.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in the March STEO in response to OPEC+ extending its cuts. That results in global oil production that is 0.9 million b/d less than our forecast of 102.

2 million b/d for world oil consumption. Although we expected some OPEC+ countries to continue to restrict production, we expect the March 3 announcement to result in larger cuts to production than we had previously assumed. The announcement includes an additional voluntary production cut from Russia., and the second type is additional voluntary cuts pledged by certain OPEC+ countrie

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