The expansion will be strong enough to minimize recession risk, but the deceleration in the trend via GDP data will remain conspicuous for a second straight quarterly update.
The recent stability of these revisions suggests, at this late date, ahead of the release of the government’s Q1 GDP report on Apr. 25, that a 2% nowcast is a reasonable guesstimate. “Combined with an acceleration of growth in the manufacturing sector, the latest services PMI data point to GDP having risen at an approximate 2% annualized rate in the first three months of the year. Confidence in the outlook for the coming year has also lifted higher, which should help to sustain solid growth into the second quarter.”
Count Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius among the optimists. He sees a growth bias persisting for the US economy, telling CNBC:
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