Five fundamentals for the week: US inflation set to trigger fireworks, ECB, BoC may surprise

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Inflation News

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How hot is the US economy? After Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showed the labor market is on fire, the arguably more important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data carries even more weight, which divides the week between before and after.

Critical US inflation data is set to rock markets, especially if core CPI remains stubbornly high. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's decision and producer prices are also of high interest. The ECB and the BoC will likely tilt to the dovish side, with the latter potentially surprising with a cut.

Markets will have limited time to cool down after the CPI report before digesting the minutes from the latest Federal Reserve decision. While it is officially only a documentation of deliberations held three weeks prior, the bank changes the emphasis in the minutes to convey a message. It is revised until the last moment. The Fed decision was perceived as dovish by forecasting higher growth, employment and inflation – without signaling fewer rate cuts this year.

 

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