The April jobs report is expected to show the U.S. labor market cooled last month but that hiring remained solid even in the face of high interest rates and chronic inflation. The Labor Department's April payroll report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, is projected to show that hiring increased by 243,000 last month and that the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, according to a median estimate by LSEG economists.
"If we did have a path where inflation proves more persistent than expected, and where the labor market remains strong but inflation is moving sideways, and we're not gaining greater confidence, that would be a case in which it could be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts," Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters this week. Average hourly earnings, a key measure of inflation, are expected to increase 0.3% for the month and climb 4% from the same time one year ago.