Shocker! The exit polls were completely wrong in predicting the outcome of the Indian election. Not only that Narendra Modi’s BJP couldn’t secure a landslide victory in the latest elections – as it was suggested by Monday’s polls, but it couldn’t even win enough seats to secure a majority in the parliament.
Today, the ADP report is expected to print around 173K new private job additions to the US economy last month. That’s a soft but not disastrous figure. If the ADP report comes in line with expectations or softer-than-expected, we may see the Fed doves gain more traction and the US yields ease more. Therefore the latest selloff may be overdone and a correction could also see support from CTAs, given that we are now approaching a critical support zone on the downside. The rising dovish central bank voices are, in theory, supportive of oil prices in the context of the reflation trade, but for the reflation trade to fully benefit to energy and commodities, growth expectations should not erode fast to flash recession. That’s a fine line.
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