Elections roil markets as biggest race looms in packed 2024

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Election results in Mexico, South Africa and India jolted currencies and stocks alike, a stark reminder that politics still matter for markets in a year when...

LONDON - Election results in Mexico, South Africa and India jolted currencies and stocks alike, a stark reminder that politics still matter for markets in a year when countries accounting for more than 60% of global economic output and more than half its population will vote.

The far-right Chega did well in Portugal's March election, and pollsters tip Belgium's far-right party to do well in June 9 federal elections. Investors expect Labour to follow a pro-business agenda, improve relations with the EU and avoid spending splurges, meaning any policy bombshells from opposition leader Keir Starmer could unsettle UK markets.President Nicolas Maduro is running for a third term in the July 28 elections - a race the opposition will contest for the first time in a decade after boycotting the 2018 ballot.

Trump's proposal to go further than Biden against China, with a 60% tariff on imports if he wins a second four-year term, would mean higher U.S. inflation and interest rates, UBS reckons.India's self-styled strongman Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a record-tying third term, as expected. As ANC leaders sized up which party to align with - the free-marketeer Democratic Alliance , the populist uMkhonto we Sizwe or the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters - the Rand currency clawed back from its post-election pounding, but has lost more than 1.4% this month.Mexico elected its first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum, but an unexpected supermajority gave the ruling coalition sweeping powers for constitutional changes.

 

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