OPEC+ policy shift 'casts a bearish shadow' over oil prices for next two years, Deutsche Bank says

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It is 'inconceivable that the market could absorb anything close' to 2.2 million bpd, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said.

The decision by

+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed Sunday to gradually phase out 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts from October through September 2025. It is "inconceivable that the market could absorb anything close" to 2.2 million bpd, Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh told clients in a note Wednesday. The supply increase is similar in magnitude to the 2.3 million bpd oversupply during the first year of the pandemic in 2020, Hsueh wrote.

+ pressing pause on the plan after several months. This would lead to a modest surplus of 600,000 bpd in 2025, according to the bank. Deutsche has slashed its oil price forecast for 2025 by 10% based on the latter scenario, with the supply increase expected to push U.S. crude oil down to $70 per barrel and Brent to $75 per barrel by the end of next year. The policy shift by

+ has reduced production by a total of 5.8 million bpd, equivalent to about 6% of global demand, through multiple rounds of cuts to boost prices as high interest rates weighed on demand. The supply increase also serves as a "warning shot" to producers outside

 

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