How Biden's border restrictions could affect the labor market

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The high job growth of the past few years was driven in large part by immigration.

in large part by immigration, but now the Biden administration is looking to curb migrants' entry into the country.The strength in the job market helped underpin a surprisingly strong economy amid historic interest rate hikes.

The big question now is whether the new border restrictions will slow either the job market or the economy overall.Much of the growth in the job market in recent years has come from lawful immigration — and the administration's actions won't impact that.preventing people who unlawfully cross the Southern border from seeking asylum. Instead, they'll be sent to their home country or removed to Mexico.

When the number of people crossing the border is low enough for officials to manage safely, then this rule will be discontinued.half of the non-farm payroll job growth since October 2023 has come from asylum-seekers, refugees and other migrants who have been authorized to work in the U.S., per a research note from Standard Chartered Bank released last month.

"Even if the executive order is implemented exactly as written, we're not going to see this in any appreciable way in aggregate economic data for the next handful of months," says Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at Brookings who coauthored its analysis.the administration has "repeatedly made clear that reforming our immigration system would strengthen our economy, boost our labor supply, and help solve workforce shortages that some businesses are facing.

Whatever the report finds, one thing is clear — a lot of those added jobs are being done by recent immigrants.Share on linkedin

 

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