Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX who now manages a family office named Maelstrom, said the crypto bull market is “reawakening” following interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, then the European Central Bank this week.
The central banking “fireworks” set off by these decisions will “catapult crypto out of the northern hemispheric summer doldrums,” Hayes added in his June 6 Substack post.This wasn’t Hayes’ base case, explaining he expected the catalyst to come in August when the U.S. Federal Reserve hosts its Jackson Hole Symposium, where significant economic policy changes are typically announced.
“The big question is whether the Fed will start cutting rates this close to the November U.S. presidential election,” Hayes said. However, Hayes said the Fed typically doesn’t change course this close to an election and still believes it is “political suicide” to cut rates in the U.S. at this time, given persistent concerns around inflation, adding that his base case was the Fed holds rates at its next meeting.
“The BOE has nothing to lose,” Hayes said. “The Conservative Party is going to get their ass handed to them at the next election, so there is no reason to disobey orders from the rulers of their former colony in order to keep a lid on inflation.”Ultimately, the trend is clear, Hayes said. “Central banks at the margin are starting easing cycles. Go long bitcoin and subsequently sh*tcoins.”