Economy is in a period of 'normalization': Economist

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Michael Reid News

RBC Capital Markets,Normalization

In response to June's hotter-than-expected Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data, RBC Capital Markets US economist Michael Reid offers his insights on market...

Reid interprets the latest economic indicators as"a continued sign of normalization." Analyzing the retail sales report, he suggests that this data reinforces the concept of economic normalizationRegarding labor market dynamics, Reid points out that job reports indicate a mixed landscape, with some metrics suggesting"growth will continue," while others hint at persistent weaknesses.

However, when you look at the payroll number, um that is still quite robust, we're still seeing very strong gains there and wage growth is still quite strong.So I mean that this is something you recently wrote about, which I think is interesting, this question of is the labor market still tight or not?And I think certain way to think about this is um in the context of normalization, what else is going on kind of uh more broadly uh in terms of the demographic picture.

So when we're thinking about where the right number for job openings should land uh in terms of the new normal, um we do think it should be higher than what we saw prior to COVID.Um And as those folks retire and leave the labor market, um that creates job openings that doesn't necessarily show up as net new job growth.We've been talking a lot about the election.

Um And then once those come online, we should see a boost to employment in terms of the folks who are hired there to uh you know, start the operations. Greenland’s massive rare earth deposit, acquired by a Nasdaq-listed company, could significantly reduce the West's dependence on China for critical minerals.

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