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A resilient economy and strong earnings are overpowering normal election worries

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While volatility has picked up recently, returns on the S&P 500 are far above normal, and it likely has little to do with the economic policies of either candidate.

There's still two months to go in the year, and this is already one of the strangest markets we have seen in a long time. In years when there are presidential elections, and particularly close elections, the market is usually more volatile earlier in the year, and returns are typically slightly lower than in non-election years. Not this year.

The third quarter is exhibiting a typical pattern: overall earnings come down a couple percentage points going into the quarter , than estimates rise as companies begin to report and beat estimates. Third quarter earnings for the S & P 500 are up 8.4%, well above the 6.0% estimated at the start of October. 77.1% of the companies have beat analyst expectations and most importantly, companies are beating estimates by a wider margin than usual: 7.

 

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