Europe’s winter gas supplies at risk from market disruptions

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Region replaced Russian pipeline imports with globally traded LNG, which is more susceptible to price rises

Europe has survived two consecutive winters since Russia invaded Ukraine and weaponised gas supplies. Yet as the region heads into the colder months, traders and analysts are concerned about the region coming out of this winter as smoothly. One fundamental problem is that the European gas market is now connected to the volatile global energy markets more than ever, as a result of its forced diversification from Russian pipeline gas to liquefied natural gas.

I think most of it will need to be replaced by LNG.” Due to delays in start-ups of new export facilities, LNG supply growth will remain limited this winter, restraining the pool of LNG Europe can call upon. Commodity data firm Kpler estimates that only 2.5mn tonnes of LNG will be added to the market this winter, about a quarter of the new additions during last winter.

 

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