In the past week, at least six professional investors have told me that—and they are probably right. This bull market for U.S. stocks is by far the longest on record, and only a lunatic would think it can last indefinitely.The S&P 500 hasn’t fallen by at least 20% from a previous high since March 2009. As commonly defined, this bull market is nearly 3,750 days old, the longest in the S&P 500’s more-than-90-year history.
Because market cycles tend to last for years, major turning points are few and far apart. There is little comparability in the history of these inflection points, making it hard to draw firm conclusions. Naturally, what you expect depends on what you have experienced. The investment thinker Peter L. Bernstein, who died in 2009, often spoke of “memory banks,” the collective experiences that investors live through and that live on in their minds.
As Fred Schwed Jr. wrote in his book “Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?” in 1940: “There are certain things that cannot be adequately explained to a virgin either by words or pictures. Nor can any description that I might offer here even approximate what it feels like to lose a real chunk of money that you used to own.”
“Economic growth is still relatively high, but the pace has been decelerating, putting us closer to the turning point,” says Andrew Ang, head of factor investing strategies at BlackRock Inc. “This is a time when investors should seek resilience in their portfolios.”Granted, the same has been said often over the past decade. But, if you are worried that it is late in the cycle and the bull can’t keep running for much longer, you could take a few small steps.
The biggest threat to the stock market is interrupting trade by a bullying President, messing with Iran & their oil trade & Chinese exports!
Investing in stocks is highly risky now.
Left Ear : Yeah, Lyle, it's a bear market. Shit!
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