is changing direction. In December it predicted that it would raise the federal funds rate twice in 2019, to 2.75-3.0%. In March it thought it would hold rates steady instead. Investors now think there is a one-in-five chance that it will cut rates at its meeting on June 19th, and a 95% chance that it will do so by September . Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, has said it is “ready to act”.
Markets provide the aggregated wisdom of a crowd of individuals with money on the line. In most contexts their forecasts will outperform those of a financially disinterested committee, even one made up of experts. But there are other reasons why an apparent discrepancy between the two may endure. The second is that markets agree with the central bank about the economic outlook, but are confused about how it will act. “The Fed might have failed to communicate well,” says Frederic Mishkin, a former rate-setter.
At the rate things are going central banks are just going to keep interest rates negative permanently, just so that no one has to be anxious about an economic slowdown, or think about whether any other policy is actually needed.
No, rate cuts should be used to help an economy in recession, not to maintain an expansion. Keep the powder dry for when it's needed.
How will they fight the next inevitable and fast-approaching recession now that Trump has bullied them into keeping rates low when really they should have been raised quite substantially in the last 12 months? There’s no safety brake now........