Investors turn their attention to ‘precarious’ SA

— the biggest quarterly slump in a decade.

Oxford Economics now ranks SA behind Turkey and Argentina as the big emerging market most at risk of a debt crisis, which warrants downward pressure on its rating, said Evghenia Sleptsova, an economist at the firm. Expectations are growing that Moody’s will cut SA to “junk” frombefore year-end — or at least issue a downgrade warning, as Société Générale predicts will happen at Moody’s next scheduled review on November 1.

Société Générale has estimated in the past that being booted from both the FTSE World Government Bond Index and the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate could trigger sales of SA debt worth between $6bn and $17bn. Reuters polls had predicted a modest rand bounce later in 2019, but the shock quarter-one growth reading may cause a revision.

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