This analyst says bullish Netflix sell siders are trafficking in ‘bullshit’

Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson offered an interesting view in a note on Netflix Inc.’s disappointing second-quarter earnings release late Wednesday:

At the time, that made Netflix more valuable than Disney DIS, -1.26% and Comcast CMCSA, -0.53% , two well-known owners of hard assets that generate plenty of free cash flow, as he noted. Netflix, in contrast, has posted better-than-expected subscriber numbers in the intervening quarters but higher free-cash-flow losses as it spends heavily on content. Its stock has continued to climb and now trades above $320.

Using 12 times 2025 EBITDA and an 8% discount rate, the firm estimated that the U.S. present value was $66 billion, meaning the international assets were worth more than $114 billion. “In other words, the S-Curve in the U.S. may be finally be flattening after all these years of growth,” said the note. “As such, it will increase doubts about Netflix’s final resting subscriber base. Maybe it is 80 million vs. the 88.4 million in our prior valuation case. “

You think NetFlix saturated and can only go down from here?

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