Take Five: Trade war whiplash and other market themes for the week ahead

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1/TRADE WAR WHIPLASH

FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., July 31, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Global stock and commodity markets are diving deep into the red with investors skeptical over chances of success for Trump’s gamble and scrambling for cover in traditional havens such as top-rated government bonds, Swiss francs and Japan’s yen. Benchmark bond yields have plummeted, with the entire German government borrowing horizon out to 30 years now in negative territory for the first time.

Trade data due out from China on Thursday is likely to reinforce a trend of declining exports and imports, the latter also a function of slowing investment and demand at home. Its trade surplus with the U.S. has been rising too. Growth may be at its weakest pace in 27 years, but foreign investor inflows into China suggest there is no hand wringing yet.-FACTBOX-From phone makers to farmers, the toll of Trump’s trade warsInvestors can’t get enough of U.S.

Trump’s tariff curve ball to the Fed saw markets immediately price in chances that policy makers may have to cut rates more aggressively. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched 1.832% in the wake of Trump’s tariff move. The massive drop in benchmark yields marked their lowest level since Nov. 9, 2016 - the day after Trump’s surprise presidential win. Thirty-year yields hit 2.368%, the lowest since October 2016.

 

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