NOW It's A Bear Market

The long-awaited Fed rate cut occurred at the end of last month. Actually, it was not long-awaited at all. Just a few months ago, the average Wall Street guru was expecting multiple rateHowever, in response to slowing global economic growth, tariffs, and a lack of inflation pressure, the Fed decided to take overnight rates down a notch. Their goal is to keep employment high, inflation at bay, and recessions in the closet.

Since that time, the S&P 500 has been about flat, as the chart below shows. The market has gyrated a lot since that time, but it has made little upward progress.Now, the S&P 500 is not the entire market. So, there will continue to be opportunities for equity investors. They just won't resemble the last decade, where you could essentially throw darts and make a profit.I care a lot about what happens to the economy.

Major declines are bad enough by themselves. However, what is just as bad is the math of investment loss. Namely, that it takes so much more in percentage gains to recover from a big loss. That's why my personal mantra is ABL - Avoid the Big Loss.When the S&P peaked after the rate cut at the start of 2001, the market was already falling. 2000 had been a down year . The market did not recover its year 2000 high until during 2007.And then, just when it seemed safe to go back in the water..

Beyond that, bear markets tend to move faster than bull markets. The one in 2000 lasted 36 months. The Financial Crisis starting in 2007 lasted 18 months. If we follow that pattern, perhaps this one is less than a year in duration. Who knows? All I know is that portfolio management is a continuous process, and opportunities come up all of the time. They just may not look like the ones we have seen the past several years.

Polar bears r fuzzy lol

So more guns for everyone?

And it's only just begun

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