The month kicks off this Friday as investors take in payrolls data for October and a key update on U.S. manufacturing health. The drama continues on Nov. 16-17 when U.S. and Chinese leaders are scheduled to meet in Chile and maybe, just maybe, sign some sort of agreement on trade.
While jobs and trade could be keystones this coming month, there’s plenty of other stuff to keep investors occupied as the autumn days shorten and winter approaches. The economy added 136,000 jobs in September and the government upwardly revised numbers from the previous two months. Hourly pay rose 2.9%, down a little from August but also a possible sign that inflation remains at bay, giving the Fed more cover if it wants to lower rates. Jobs growth wasn’t outstanding, but economists said it was enough to indicate continued economic health.
Consumer spending is what’s really driven the economy these last few months, even with the overhang of slowness in Europe and Asia and issues like trade and Brexit. Consumer confidence here in the U.S. has stayed pretty high, and we’re heading into an important holiday shopping season. When people have jobs, they’re willing to spend money, and the solid consumer spending we’ve seen is a side effect of a great job market.
The other stage-setter is this week’s Fed meeting. Going into Wednesday’s decision, the futures market at CME Group pegged odds of a rate cut at well over 90%. It would be the Fed’s third meeting in a row with a rate cut as the Federal Open Market Committee and Fed Chair Jerome Powell continue to emphasize taking steps to keep the economy humming. The long-term inflation slump helps make this possible, but some analysts say the Fed could take a holiday pause.