Q1 labour market figures better than expected, but real storm is still ahead, economists say

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SINGAPORE: Amid the grim economic forecast, Singapore's first quarter employment figures were better than expected, said analysts, although they ...

But even with these measures, companies are facing more severe economic headwinds in the second quarter - and possibly beyond, said Professor Kim Sun Bae of the NUS Business School.

Mr Chua added that employment will likely contract by about 80,000 to 100,000 in the second quarter - at least four time more than the first quarter - and will remain high in the third quarter.The service sector, which accounts for about 75 per cent of total employment in Singapore, will see the greatest impact, said Prof Kim, especially retail trade, hospitality, food services, as well as transport businesses.

Over the same period, the proportion who indicated they have no intention of reducing salaries also fell from 85 per cent to 71 per cent. For some industries like aviation, wage subsidies are not enough to cushion them, said Mr Ng. Unlike other industries, it will take aviation at least a year to recover. While this sector will continue to get a 75 per cent wage subsidy from the Government under the Jobs Support Support Scheme, aviation companies will still be tight on cash if they have to pay the remaining 25 per cent of wages as revenue has fallen to near-zero figures.

If the circuit breaker period is further extended beyond Jun 1 but without government aid, employers will inevitably have to let some people go, especially among smaller firms, said Ms Ling.Even as countries around the world begin to lift restrictions, it will still take time for business activities to pick up, the economists said.

Business sentiments will continue to remain fragile if private consumption does not recover in the second half of 2020, Ms Ling said.Mr Ng said that the Government has already made a comprehensive effort to protect jobs through its three rounds of budgetary support.

 

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