CIARAN RYAN: Volatility is back. It returned with a vengeance in the past few weeks with the S&P 500 index plunging more than 9% since the start of the year, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down nearly 15%. Given this heightened volatility, investors must ensure their portfolios are well diversified, and they need to be aware of the possible rotation from growth to value.
What the crisis, as well as the subsequent recovery, has taught us is that things are always volatile when you talk about equity investment; there’s an inherent cyclicality in markets and you should be in a position where you can take advantage of it. So, it’s not necessarily taking advantage in the form of market timing, really, but it is being more measured, being more tactical as those opportunities present themselves.
CIARAN RYAN: Right. You touched on the bond market, and there’s a lot of talk about inflation. What, in your view, were some of the key macroeconomic drivers in the last two years? In South Africa, I think we are a little more sheltered in the sense that our bond yields are already quite high. It seems they’ve priced in a lot, let’s call it, more fiscal risks for South Africa. But in doing that they’ve also created some margin of safety should we see interest-rate hikes. So maybe [things are] less dire on that front.
ADRIAAN PASK: Well, I think there are certainly some areas of the market that would be value traps, that look stressed – and they are justifiably rated lower from a PE [price-earnings] perspective. But I think on aggregate there are actually very good opportunities – real value and not really value traps. But again, you’ll have to be selective through that.
ADRIAAN PASK: Yeah, I think there are many. I think most South Africans are incredibly well versed in all the challenges that South Africa as a country faces. We talk often about the public-sector wage bill, dysfunctional state-owned enterprises, unemployment – especially among the youth – corruption, the risk of social unrest. So, all these things are challenges South Africa [faces]. In many cases, these have been challenges that we’ve been trying to deal with for a while.
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