Housing Market Crash: Senior Economist Says 11% Further Downside Ahead

  • 📰 BusinessInsider
  • ⏱ Reading Time:
  • 55 sec. here
  • 2 min. at publisher
  • 📊 Quality Score:
  • News: 25%
  • Publisher: 51%

Canada News News

A senior economist at Interactive Brokers shares why home prices across the country will fall another 11% over the next year — and why a 2008-size crash he had expected won't come after all

, and others is that 30-year rates will remain above 5%.While Torres is bearish on the direction of home prices, he recently adjusted his call to a 15% total declineOne of the reasons Torres thinks home price declines will be less severe now is because new home starts and permits haven't grown as much as he thought they would, meaning new supply coming onto the market is stalling along with stagnant demand.

Plus, he said, many of the new homes that are being built are part of apartment complexes owned by commercial real-estate firms, so they'll be for the rental market. "Initially it seemed improbable that construction activity would fall that sharply. It has fallen faster than I expected," he said."On top of that, almost all construction activity has gone into multifamily, into apartment rentals."

The below chart shows in red the number of permits for new privately owned single-family housing units. It's fallen off a cliff over the last year. Permits for multifamily units are shown in blue — they've jumped recently.Another reason for Torres' milder call is that potential home sellers are staying put amid high mortgage rates, crunching supply alongside the drop in demand.

"Folks that are in their homes, they have very little incentive to sell," he said."What are they going to do, they're going to get out of their 3% mortgage and go move out to one that's 6.5%? That's not a good value proposition."

 

Thank you for your comment. Your comment will be published after being reviewed.
Please try again later.
We have summarized this news so that you can read it quickly. If you are interested in the news, you can read the full text here. Read more:

 /  🏆 729. in CA

Canada Canada Latest News, Canada Canada Headlines

Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.

Housing market in tech hubs cooling faster than other parts of US - reportHousing markets in tech hubs are cooling more rapidly than other parts of the United States amid a wave of layoffs in the technology sector and elevated mortgage rates, according to real estate broker Redfin Corp's report on Monday.
Source: Reuters - 🏆 2. / 97 Read more »

Experts discuss tight housing market at ‘Make it Monday’ forum in AnchorageIt’s no secret that it is a seller’s market both nationally and in Alaska. In Anchorage, however, it’s not the demand that’s becoming an issue but rather the supply.
Source: AKNewsNow - 🏆 460. / 53 Read more »

The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same time. It all depends on where you live.
Source: BusinessInsider - 🏆 729. / 51 Read more »