Canada's housing market may not be as risky as the IMF thinks

One improving indicator is the number and quality of new mortgages being issued. Mortgage origination peaked in the first quarter of 2021 after rising rapidly from the second quarter of 2020. Whereas housing prices continued their upward climb during 2021, mortgage originations declined to 132,672 in the first quarter of 2023 from a peak of 282,272 in the first quarter of 2021.during the pandemic to 54 per cent of new originations in the first quarter of 2022 from 9.

The loan-to--value ratio is another indicator for high-risk homebuyer borrowers, who borrow up to 95 per cent of the dwelling value. The higher the LTV, the higher the risk. The share of high LTV new mortgages has been declining since 2020, such that less than five per cent of new mortgage originations in the first quarter of 2023 had an LTV of 95 per cent or higher.Article content

But this metric — also known as the debt-service ratio — has more to do with rising interest rates than accelerating housing prices. The DSR remained stable even as housing prices rapidly grew from 2014 to 2021. But we’re not panicking about this data for two reasons. First, the increase of 0.41 percentage points is concerning but not alarming. Second, the current rate of mortgage loan arrears is 0.12 per cent, the lowest since 2014. The rise in arrears, albeit small, is due to instalment loans that are not necessarily tied to housing markets.Article content

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