Has the S&P 500's recent correction triggered a new bear market?

  • 📰 MarketWatch
  • ⏱ Reading Time:
  • 44 sec. here
  • 2 min. at publisher
  • 📊 Quality Score:
  • News: 21%
  • Publisher: 97%

Canada News News

Canada Canada Latest News,Canada Canada Headlines

After analyzing all 10%-plus declines for the S&P 500 since 1928, here are the chances that the most recent selloff will lead to worse.

Last Friday the S&P 500 SPX entered correction territory by closing more than 10% below its July 31 high. The U.S. benchmark index would have to fall by another 10 percentage points to satisfy the semi-official definition of a bear market.

Specifically, I analyzed a database of all S&P 500 declines of at least 10% since 1928. Of the 55 corrections on the list, the stock market in 21 cases eventually fell enough further to eclipse the greater-than-20% decline threshold. Is it possible to torture the data into providing a more definitive prediction? If there is, I couldn’t find it. Various valuation indicators, for example, are largely unhelpful in distinguishing between those declines that turned out to be shallow and which instead morphed into bear markets.

That’s because large daily gains occur more frequently during bear markets than bull markets. Of the100 largest daily percentage gains that the S&P 500 has experienced since 1928, 57% of them occurred during bear markets in the NDR calendar, almost double the percentage of all days that occurred during a bear market.

 

Thank you for your comment. Your comment will be published after being reviewed.
Please try again later.
We have summarized this news so that you can read it quickly. If you are interested in the news, you can read the full text here. Read more:

 /  🏆 3. in CA

Canada Canada Latest News, Canada Canada Headlines

Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.

The Bears May Get What They Want: A Market CrashStocks Analysis by Avi Gilburt covering: S&P 500, iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, SPDR® S&P 500, S&P 500 Futures. Read Avi Gilburt's latest article on Investing.com
Source: Investingcom - 🏆 450. / 53 Read more »