Top traders see oil price sustained by tighter market in second half of 2019

Four of the world’s biggest traders expect the Brent oil price in 2019 to largely linger in the $60s a barrel with a slight rise in the second half of the year due to a tightening market, they said on the sidelines of the FT Commodities Global Summit.

“Having said that, the fundamentals will tighten a little bit in the coming months as refining capacity comes back online from turnaround and new capacity coming later in the year so more crude needs to be put on the market later on. U.S. shale is ramping up but it remains to some extent bottlenecked.”

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would provide a cap on prices, Hardy said, as the group would not want to see the price to go above $80 a barrel for fear of demand destruction. OPEC is set to meet in June to discuss whether it will extend production cuts. These waivers are due to expire in April but the traders do not see Iran having a significant impact on the price on the expectation that some waivers will be renewed.

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