Is the US job market beginning to weaken? Friday's employment report may provide hints

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Jerome Powell,Business,Washington News

Tentative signs have begun to emerge that the U.S. economy is cooling in a way that would be welcomed by the Federal Reserve’s inflation fighters: Companies are posting fewer available jobs, consumer spending has slipped and wage growth, while still healthy, is gradually slowing.

FILE - United States Postal Service letter carrier Gabriel Pea carries mail in Los Angeles on March 22, 2024. On Friday, June 7, 2024, the U.S. government issues its May jobs report. – Tentative signs have emerged that the U.S. economy is cooling in a way that would be welcomed by the Federal Reserve's inflation fighters: Companies are postingand Americans were still spending at a solid clip — factors that may have also helped keep inflation stickier than the Fed wanted.

Frank Fiorille, vice president of compliance and data analytics at Paychex, a payroll provider for small businesses, said that hiring actually accelerated among their clients last month. Fed officials will be scrutinizing Friday's data on job growth and pay gains as they consider their next steps on interest rates, in particular when to begin cutting their benchmark rate. In its fight against inflation, the central bank raised its key rate 11 times beginning in March 2022 to its current 22-year peak.

And now, growing signs suggest that the job market is settling back to something close to a pre-pandemic normal. The number of open jobs fell sharply in April for a second straight month, the governmentAnd the number of Americans who are quitting their jobs has also fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, a sharp shift from two years ago, when quits soared to record highs in the economic recovery from the pandemic.

 

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