Labor market is normalizing near pre-COVID levels: Strategist

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Mike Reynolds News

Federal Reserve,Labor Market

The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 7.67 million job openings in the month of July, a month-over-month decline that fell below...

, a month-over-month decline that fell below estimates of 8.1 million. This marks the lowest level since January 2021. While the labor market is one of the key economic indicators that could sway the Federal Reserve's September interest rate policies, how can this print influence the broader markets and investors?"We're coming off of one of the most tight labor markets we've seen in the post-COVID era, where there were a lot of dislocations.

There's this ongoing debate right now whether what we're seeing in the labour market is signs of deterioration or normalisation. Mike, what are you going to look at to indicate that we are not slowing but slow for this labour market, particularly when you look at a data point like the jolts numbers we got today, there's a lot of individual data points under the hood that you can pull out right layoff firings of the quick rate separations, for example, under the hood, what data point will you look at to determine the path forward for this labour market?From our perspective, one of the best leading indicators is...

Early August economic data sent the markets tumbling early September, uh, economic data that we're getting out.Today it looks like markets are trying to rebound here a little bit. We think the risks are actually relatively balanced here, um, but are concerned with some of the valuations we're seeing on the particularly the large cap growth side.You really want to be on your toes for when the bottom starts to fall out and you get full capitulation.You know, we've started the month down a little bit, but we're continuing to monitor the sentiment really closely because you can actually get some decent opportunities there.

 

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