's latest inversion. The presence of this triple-headed monster goes a long way towards explaining why investors are so desperate for yield in the near term.
Tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and its trading partners will continue to suppress earnings and economic output, putting downward pressure on an already slowing global economy. These tariffs don't pay for themselves, so the cost will either be passed down to the end consumer or absorbed by the supplier or initial buyer, depending on the nature of the levy.that hampers growth.
Meanwhile, the yield curve comparing 2- and 10-year Treasurys is the go-to recession indicator for money managers, as inversions have preceded every US contraction on record. JPMorgan perfectly summed up the overarching narrative: This sentiment shift has led directly to open interest across rate futures — or the number of contracts outstanding — spiking as investors seek to eke out every possible basis point in an already-suppressed yield enviroment.Global negative-yielding debt — which essentially means issuers are getting paid to borrow — now encompasses more than $11 trillion dollars, accounting for more than 20% of the investment-grade market, leaving market participants with fewer, riskier options for returns.
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