Earnings estimates could come down if the trade war escalates further.S&P earnings could go negative.The realization that the trade war may expand from tariff wars to encompass currency wars is causing some consternation among analysts and strategists who are increasingly confused and uncertain on how to determine 2019 and 2020 earnings estimates.
Of course, analysts have long been concerned with the impact of tariffs on earnings. Nick Raich, who covers corporate earnings at the Earnings Scout, notes that estimates have ebbed and flowed with tariff headlines: "In May, when the trade war escalated, earnings estimates dropped, and then in June when the psychology got better they improved," he told me. "They started weakening again last week when Trump tweeted about more tariff wars.
But that is what Wall Street is facing. Mike O'Rourke, Chief Market Strategist for Jones Trading, noted that even Apple was giving analysts a tough time. "Apple had positive guidance," he said, "but it's hard to have confidence because they are so exposed to China. There's just not a lot of visibility, and I don't have the expectation that there will be a lot more visibility.
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