Next stock market crash: Large Apple, Microsoft weights a bear signal - Business Insider

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The stock market just did something for the first time since the start of the dot-com crash — and it could spell trouble for the market's biggest tech firms

this year, you're currently enjoying year-to-date returns in excess of 65%. That's no small order, and should be cause for celebration. Phil Segner, research analyst at the, thinks Apple's sheer size relative to the rest of the market is cause for concern — and a possible sell signal for the stock.

"This marks the first time since March of 2000 that more than one firm has occupied the Club — when Cisco, General Electric, and Microsoft all claimed more than 4% of the S&P 500," Segner wrote in a recent client note.commenced in earnest. It's an ominous period for comparison, especially since two of the three 4% Club members back then were tech firms, just like they are today.

For Apple specifically, the 4% Club has been a negative indicator of returns to come. In four of five prior occasions, it's fallen at least 4.9% in the following 12 months. On average, across all five instances, it's dropped 2.3% over the period while trailing to S&P 500 by roughly 9%.This historical data would certainly suggest Apple could be in for a rocky road ahead, especially after having just reached a record high this past week.

 

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