The Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report includes a line counting the number of people who are out of work because they were working inand his fellow members of the Federal Open Market Committee to the list.
With the October data, the three-month moving average falls to 204,000, just below the 207,000 for the prior three-month period. The six-month moving average is 206,000. This indicates that while payroll growth has slowed from the red hot numbers of last year, when job growth averaged 399,000 per month,There were strong disinflationary pressures that brought down the pace of price hikes from last year’s four-decade highs.
. They will have just one more employment report in hand by that meeting. Even if it comes in sizzlingly hot, Fed officials will be able to write it off as just another “bump.” So the October jobs figure probably put the final nail in the coffin of the rate hiking cycle.from around 20 percent over the past week to less than five percent after the jobs report.. “If you are an FOMC official, this is what you wanted to see. This is very good news for the Fed.
. If the last hike was in July, that suggests the first cut could come as early as May. And sure enough, that’s what markets are now forecasting.The odds that there will have been at least one cut by June are now 85 percent, with around a 50 percent chance of two hikes.following what was interpreted to be the Fed’s dovish pause at the meeting that ended Wednesday. Stocks followed this up with a gentler but confirming rise on Friday. Bond yields have plunged.
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