As all eyes are on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Penn Mutual Asset Management portfolio manager George Cipolloni would like to see a 50-basis-point cut, explaining that"the market shifted so much over the last week or so” that a 25 basis point cut could be disappointing."I think the Fed has done a really good job in terms of just holding the line, not pivoting too soon, but now with the expectation of the market… this is going to be the most uncertain FOMC meeting .
So the tech plus the defensive sectors were the ones that took it and the cyclical ones were the out performers today and the top performer was actually Bitcoin.Also I should point to China and maybe we'll have a chance to end their China doing well, at least today though, not for the year.Let's just close with a look at China and it's been a while since I saw a screen like this with as much green.
So quite a binary type of uh result, but the only two times in the last handful of decades that the fed started off, uh a rate cutting cycle, uh with 50 basis points was 2001 in 2007.It seems like there's a prevailing theory out there that, that might also cause a little bit of instability given the amount of data points we'd have to get between now and their next meeting in November.
And, and some of these are even tied to the A I play, for example, utilities aren't benefiting because look, there's gonna be a surge in energy demand there. And George, so if it's not the mag seven participating, then what does that mean if I'm an index investor, right, if I'm someone that's investing in something broad, say the S and P 500 we keep seeing this rotation, does that mean maybe more churn for people that are only investing in the benchmark?
So mag seven growth is starting not that it's stalling out, but it's not as fast as the pace that it was before. Um And then if you think about other policies, I think the big picture is that, you know, the disappointing thing as just from a citizen standpoint is that, you know, the deficit spending is so high and it's contributed so much to GDP.
But if you're like, you know, if you're a teen now you would, uh, uh, you would just be able to, uh, fake your, your own time, uh, uh, date of birth. Um And so I think that's something that's, that's going to continue to kind of bedevil uh uh Instagram or at least parents of teens that use the platform.
Uh There was uh uh Francis Hagen, uh who had come forward and said, uh you know, Instagram knew that the app was hurting the uh uh mental health of girls, but just was like, uh um and so, you know, these are things that still, still need to be addressed. Uh You have different members of the committee who have different views and the data is coming at you kind of late and at the last minute, like right, right up to the blackout period.We had uh a jobs report that came out right before uh the fed went into blackout and jobs report was mixed, the unemployment rate came down, but the payroll data were soft the previous month, the unemployment data were soft.
Let's say John, you were back in your old beat and you were in that room tomorrow with, uh, Jay Powell and that presser, what questions would you have for him, John?Uh, some people get really, uh, hung up on those questions and I think it's important but to tell you the truth, the best questions that I had, I wasn't asking in front of a group of other reporters.So right now the its benchmark interest rate is 5.3%.Right now, it's a restrictive policy rate.
But, you know, she had the answer crisis when she was at the Fed and she had an inflation crisis and COVID uh I, I think she, she wants to take a little time off.I mean, how would you, how would you grade her tenure as treasury secretary?
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