Posthaste: What to expect from inflation, interest rates and the housing market in 2023

predicting the top economic trends for 2023. A mild recession and lower than normal Canadian dollar are also in the cards.

But core inflation could prove a little more sticky. The measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, ticked up to five per cent in November, from 4.9 per cent in October,shows. That reflects an increase in the price of services, which BMO said are now bearing the brunt of inflation. That’s a problem, because price increases in services are historically much more difficult to correct.

An inflation rate of three per cent or more is much too high for the Bank of Canada’s comfort. Governor Tiff Macklem has said he will do what it takes to get it down to two per cent, and that means interest rates are likely to go higher still. BMO expects at least one more interest rate hike this year, with even more expected in the United States and Europe. It also means consumers shouldn’t bet on interest rates coming down this year.

Meanwhile, persistent high interest rates will continue to wallop the housing market. BMO expects home prices to drop a further 12 per cent, sales to fall 15 per cent and homebuilding to crater this year. It will be “impossible” for governments to deliver double the rate of housing starts they’ve promised in the years ahead as the economic situation weighs on the market.

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