A raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world’s top central banks will navigate the way ahead - including whether we’re heading for that hotly debated “no landing” scenario.
Tuesday’s consumer confidence data may be of particular interest, offering a glimpse into households’ views on economic prospects and inflation expectations. Economists polled by Reuters expect a median reading of 109.5 on the index, which unexpectedly fell in January.Unmanned trucks move shipping containers at an automated container port in Tianjin, China, Monday, Jan. 16.
This is inconvenient for investors who bought government bonds and bet on a softer dollar this year, expecting economies would decelerate and central banks would pause rate-hike campaigns. A soft landing could still happen. But if data in coming days signal that growth and inflation remain robust, equity and bond markets may turn lower still.
Markets have got the message and renewed bets on the ECB 2.5% depo rate moving higher. Deutsche Bank just raised its forecast for the peak in ECB rates to 3.75% from 3.25%.In this photo released by China's Xinhua News Agency, a worker transports products at a fiberglass workshop in a glass products company in Shahe in northern China's Hebei Province, Friday, Jan. 6.China’s reopening came fast and furious after a three-year lull.