Will a stock-market rally follow a peak in bond yields? It depends.

Soaring yields got most of the blame for a selloff that saw the S&P 500 slip more than 10% from its late July high into correction territory at the end of last month.

Read: Wall Street veteran sees ‘once in a generation buying opportunity’ in unloved areas of global stocks The Matrix Trade analysts said the signal can be fine-tuned by combining it with unemployment claims. They expect first-time claims to break above the 250,000 threshold, at which point “there is likely no turning back.”

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Dow futures flat as stock-market bulls look to build on momentum after best week of 2023William Watts is MarketWatch markets editor. In addition to managing markets coverage, he writes about stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, including oil. He also writes about global macro issues and trading strategies. During his time at MarketWatch, Watts has served in key roles in the Frankfurt, London, New York and Washington, D.C.
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