Rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions;Under appreciated inflation pressures in the US; and
Throughout history, shifts in hegemonic power have often proved very unstable to financial markets and thus merit attention. In addition, there are an increasing number of populist governments, which, in conjunction with a global trend towards extreme polarisation, have stoked greater volatility in economic policy and generally enabled undisciplined economic agendas.
Sustaining this accommodative approach prior to a realised crisis continues to push investors into riskier and less liquid investments. All of this can work as long as credit markets remain bullish, but as soon as credit conditions begin to turn, liquidity will come at an exorbitant cost. We continue to remain wary of credit risks and liquidity risks in the global fixed income markets heading into this year and think investors need to prepare accordingly.The potential for a geopolitical event appears higher than it has been in decades, given ongoing tensions among the major world powers.