The Market’s Favorite Recession Signal Probably Has It Wrong

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Fears over the coronavirus outbreak have pushed the yield curve negative, but this may reflect something much more benign, says jmackin2

The market’s most-popular recession warning is flashing red again as fears about the economic impact of China’s coronavirus outbreak prompt a big drop in Treasury yields.

Yet the warning—a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below the three-month bill, known as an inverted yield curve—is signaling something much more benign: the expectation of Federal Reserve support later this year.

 

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jmackin2 1. The Coronavirus is expected to be over in April/May. This is well within the 2 year note horizon. 2. A 10 year bond shows a greater systemic problem of Communist governance. The non transparent reaction as SecretaryRoss said is a call for relocation. tt:GordonGChang

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